In 2014 the debate over Uber's business valuation was whether it was worth $6B or $18B. The uncertainty surrounding the impact of innovations is borne out in the Uber story. Every business model has to pass two tests: the narrative and the numbers. What can we learn from the Uber valuation story?
Read MoreWalmart v. Amazon - lessons in diversification
The battle for in store grocery retail in the US provides us an interesting lens from which to explore key questions in considering diversification. Amazon is on the verge of out outpointing Walmart as the biggest revenue business in the US.But when you focus in on the grocery stores, a different picture emerges. Most analysts saw the acquisition of Whole Foods by Amazon as the game changer. Can Amazon win the bricks and mortar battle, or is it destined to be a bit player against the behemoth that is Walmart? And what can lessons can we take from this battle.
Read MoreIs your strategy compelling?
In my regular MBA teaching session on strategy execution, I offer 7 principles that underpin execution. Number 1 on the list: start with a compelling strategy. It might seem obvious, but can you, hand on heart, declare your strategy is ‘compelling’?
Fortune magazine once reported 82% of CEO’s believed their strategic planning was effective, but only 14% were happy with execution. Don’t believe that narrative. Remember, 80% of us think we’re better than average drivers. Perhaps if their strategies were better, the execution performance[1] would be much better? McKinsey data indicates that executives increasingly recognise their companies are creating sub-standard strategies.
So, if a compelling strategy is the foundation for great execution – which is an Achilles heel for most companies – and most companies fall short on this measure, what can we do?
Read MoreThe Board/Executive strategy workshop - a practise note
Henry Mintzberg wrote 25 years ago: we need better practice, not neater theories. Amen to that. Much of the writing on the ‘formal strategy process’ ignore the practical reality that strategies have a life cycle. Twenty years ago Gary Hamel observed strategies decay for four reasons: replication; supplantation; exhaustion; evisceration (but that’s another blog). The point is, strategies have a life cycle, and the process has to reflect that context.
This blog highlights some elements of a recent Board/Executive strategy workshop, with about 20 people in the room (it is a large board). It followed a deep, fundamental, strategic review and workshop I led about 12 months prior in a workshop that involved the board, the CEO and one other executive.
Thus, the purpose of this recent workshop was not a re-examination of the strategy: the strategic direction was clear and agreed. A few things had changed in the external environment since the prior workshop. Whilst this had caused the sequencing and prioritisation of some of the strategic initiatives to be adjusted, it wasn’t a case of a wholesale review. With a nod to the former UK Prime Minister Harold Macmillan: what was the greatest strategic challenge of the CEO – “events dear boy, events”.
The purpose of this workshop was a chance for the board to hear from the executive on the implementation program, check alignment, and provide feedback to the executive.
My bias in any strategy process is toward conversations. Great strategies are rarely discovered primarily through analytics (thank you Jeanne Liedtka), but through conversation, action and reflection. The quality of the conversations is a one indicator of the likely success of your strategy – not just in ‘design’ but in execution.
Given this brief, what were some of the design features?
§ Early engagement with the executive to shape the content and messaging. What does the board need to know[1]? What do you want the conversation to be about? When you are the executive immersed deeply in the content, it is sometimes hard to lift yourself out of the detail.
§ Be clear about what you want from the Board? Sometimes you just need them to be aware of strategic context. But sometimes you need them to make a call, or at least give you some directional guidance. Are they happy with the pace and direction? Design with intent.
§ Bring the board into the conversation early. We began with a simple question: how do you feel as we start our day? This brought some real energy into the room. And there was strong alignment from the outset – more than I anticipated.
§ Drawing out the input from across the board. With a large board, it is too easy for some to sit back. You need engage individuals, directly invite them to contribute. Sometimes you want to provoke. My role isn’t to simply make sure everyone is being polite. I want to know the issues are being surfaced, and challenging views are given voice.
§ Synthesis. Often as facilitator we add value by synthesising the conversations as they progress. At this workshop I particularly wanted to board to ‘own’ the outcomes of the conversation. And so at the end of the day I called on a few of the key influencers to offer their synthesis. At times I would build on their comments to connect the different threads.
In the wrap up, many of the board members commented on the strength of alignment. Clarity of direction – alignment – is more than many organisations achieve. As Richard Rumelt [Good Strategy, Bad Strategy] observed:
“an organisation’s greatest challenge may not be external threats or opportunities, but instead the effects of entropy [a measure of the degree of disorder in a system] and inertia”
One of the more vocal and challenging board members commented: “I’m even more energised than I was this morning; it was a great result”. That’s a win!
[1] If you’re not familiar with it, check out Minto’s pyramid.
Slowly, then quickly ...
In mid-2015 Woolworths was the poster child for a board and executive that forgot managing a company is about more than shareholder returns. Today that moniker belongs to QANTAS. To quote Joe Aston – a fierce critic of QANTAS and more specifically, Allan Joyce – and Ayesha de Kretser in the Financial Review (Saturday 9 Sept):
“New CEO Vanessa Hudson takes over an airline that makes more money than ever but is the most hated brand in the country.”
It is no small feat to go from one of Australia’s most iconic brands to most hated. How did it get to this? To borrow from Hemingway: slowly, and then quickly. But it gave me a reason dust off and refresh a blog from the archives.
What does the Woolworths experience teach us?
Woolworths held their margins too high for too long, prioritising shareholders over customers. And customers voted with their feet – and their wallet. Woolworths share price dropped 30% over 12 months [40% over 24 months] from its mid-2015 peak. Commentators expected it would take at least 2 years to recover a reasonable sales growth trajectory.
In February 2016 Woolworths’ new CEO announced his first priority was ‘to focus our team on customers’. Woolworths reduced prices 3.8% in Q4 2016 [1]. This had immediate effect, with their customer satisfaction jumping from sub 70% to 75% in the final quarter of FY2016. Woolworths share price recovered by October 2019. This was also the time of the Masters debacle (see here for that story) so there were confounding factors.
The primacy of shareholder value is much loved by many, and the implications of not delivering on shareholder value are ever present. The market can be pretty harsh when the returns are not ‘satisfactory’.
But near-term shareholder returns are no proxy for organisational health and long-term value. Many highly respected business leaders argue against the cult of shareholder value. Counter-intuitively, Rosabeth Moss Kanter has argued:
“The companies that are most successful at maximising shareholder value over time are those that aim toward goals other than maximising shareholder value”
In 2010 Roger Martin, the Dean of the Rotman School of Management argued that maximising shareholder value “is a tragically flawed premise, and it’s time we abandoned it … and made the shift to customer capitalism”.
Peter Drucker argued that “the sole purpose of business is to attract and retain customers”. While most executives believe the ‘accepted wisdom’ in the US is that businesses are obliged to maximise shareholder value, when asked their own views the highest rated corporate purpose was ‘to serve customers interests’.[2] It’s not that Drucker et al. imagined companies did not need to make money. Failure to make an economic return is ultimately fatal. But your economic model will fail without customers valuing what you offer – and feeling valued.
What about the talent equation? Investments include both financial and ‘human capital’ (our talent). Financial capital without talent is just money. Just as the financial investors expect a reasonable return, so too, our human capital should expect a reasonable return on their investment.
If you see people as simply an instrumental input to ‘production’ then you limit what’s possible. This is the fundamental difference between transactional leadership – which produces what you contract for – and transformational leadership – which produces more than you expected.
Some very successful CEO’s actually live by this principle:
§ Business has to give people enriching, rewarding lives, or it’s simply not worth doing … Richard Branson
§ You have to treat your employees like your customers … Herb Kelleher (CEO Southwest Airlines)
Thus, businesses compete in three markets[3]: capital; customers; and talent. Arguing which of these three stakeholders has ‘primacy’ misses the point: to succeed, a business must succeed in all three markets.
In an ideal world, these stakeholders sit in a state of constructive dissatisfaction. Shareholders seeking more profit; customers more value; employees a better deal. It is constructive dissatisfaction because it is this tension between ‘what is’ and ‘what could be’ that is the animating force of change.
Is it too glib to suggest that a business can manage this system so that these forces are not in a state of tension? Wouldn’t that be the equivalent of having zero debt on the balance sheet: a lazy balance sheet? Nothing more being demanded by anyone? This is arguably a recipe for failure as much as getting the balance wrong.
For too long now QANTAS has given primacy to shareholders over customers and employees. Fill in your own QANTAS horror story. Accountability for this sits as much with the board as it does with the executive. Watch this space.
What are the lessons for your business?
Create space for an open conversation in the board room and within the executive team. Is there a felt level of ‘constructive dissatisfaction’? What measures might suggest the tension system is out of balance? Do you allow – invite in – conversations that challenge the current balance? Do you listen to outside voices?
… the unfashionable strategist
PS: check out The Fin podcast: ‘The real story behind Qantas’ rapid descent – and what’s next’.
[1] Excluding tobacco
[2] Unpacking Corporate Purpose. A report on the beliefs of executives, investors and scholars (2014). www.aspeninstitute.org/UnpackCorporatePurpose
[3] You could make an argument that the model should include suppliers, and potentially broader stakeholders, but that’s for another blog.
35 Innovators under 35 - MIT Technology Review
Every year MIT Technology Review “takes a look at not just where technology is now, but where it’s going and who’s taking it there”. Their Change Issue gives us a glimpse into the future with their ’35 Innovators under 35’ feature. I read a bunch of them: mind blown!. They are all awesome: both the people and the technologies.
This blog gives you a flavour of the stories. But more importantly they are a reminder of three important lessons for executives.
Scan widely. Engage with fields of expertise where you are a novice. Allow yourself the luxury of asking ‘dumb’ questions. The last word goes to William Gibson:
The future is already here, it’s just unevenly distributed.
Go find the future. Good luck.
DDB
Read MoreTesla deep dive - advantage Tesla (part 1)
There is so much we can say about Tesla. It has passionate advocates and it has detractors, especially around valuation. In this part 1 I discuss the source of their competitive advantage and its disruption of the auto sector. I invoke the concept of architectural innovation in a classic paper by Henderson & Clark. In this piece I’m offering you a much deeper insight into how this has come about. In part 2, i will offer some views on their current valuation. I suspect that will generate more comment than this piece, but this piece will teach you much more about the patterns of strategic innovation.
Finally, a warning: it is longer than my usual material (ca. 1200 words vs. 850). I hope its worth the additional reading time.
Read MoreFintech: a classic Christensen disruption
The stories around disruption are confused and confusing. Peter Thiel, a billionaire tech entrepreneur has opined: “disruption has transmogrified itself into a self-congratulatory buzzword for anything new and trendy”. Who could disagree. But the fintech sector is a classic case study of Christensen style disruption. The underserved market is clear: 50% of adults in Latin America without access to a bank account: the ‘unbanked’. In Mexico, around 70% of adults are unbanked. They have never had a card, unable to pay for anything other than with cash.
This blog outlines why such a vast ‘market’ is underserved, and how the fintechs are using this market to ‘disrupt’ the incumbents.
Enjoy … a strategist’s view
Read MoreMaking strategy - it's complicated
The formal strategic planning process is only part of the lived strategy process. So how do we ‘make strategy’? McKinsey argued 35 years ago that strategy is the outcome of strategic thinking, planning and opportunistic decision making. And yet most of the papers on strategy making are oriented to the formal part of the process. We need a more deliberate, multi-layered approach to strategy making.
One of the most important goals of any strategic conversation must be to challenge the mental models. But this demands a willingness to be displaced from what’s comfortable. How can you catalyse a fresh approach to ‘strategy making’?
Read MoreThe COVID accelerator - what sticks?
Like so many responses to COVID, the short term ‘work from home’ (WFH) shift is an acceleration of a longer-term underlying trend. Real evidence of the long term 'stickiness' of the recent WFH acceleration will take time. Some majors are looking to 'lock in' WFH. Whether this delivers the results they hope remains to be seen. we don’t always get what seems intuitively obvious. Renowned US academic and author Adam Alter (New York Times bestselling author of Irresistible and Drunk Tank Pink) has observed:
“we massively over-estimate the extent to which things change in response to mass events …
Read MoreUnderstanding VUCA: a strategist's guide
In the world of strategy these days people often toss around the acronym #VUCA: volatility; uncertainty; complexity; ambiguity. But can you tell the difference between each? And what does it mean for your choice of strategy tools. I put together a one page guide (click here) which describes each; provides a practical example from the world of business; and suggests a few responses to each.
Good luck. Feel free to share …
DDB … a strategist’s view
Lessons from one of the great success stories ... and it's not tech (Part 1)
Which companies do you look to for insights? Are you biased to the big tech firms: Apple; Amazon; Facebook; Google. Or do you prefer the newbies? The unicorns? The reality is that most businesses in Australia don’t - and won’t - look like these. But what if you could learn from a company that returned a compound annual growth rate of 26% over 30 years? And that in a sector that is notoriously an under-achiever?
This blog recounts just some of the lessons of one of the greats of business strategy … who ironically argued ‘we have a strategic plan: it’s called doing things’. But more on that later.
DDB … a strategist’s view
Read MoreLet's talk about purpose: One community, one shadow
Have you sometimes found yourself confused at best, frustrated or cynical at worst, by the vagaries of ‘mission, vision, values’? CEO’s lament the confusion of language around these constructs. And ‘consumers’ lament of the disconnect between the words and their observations. Daniel Pink refers to transcendent purpose. He also observed: when the profit motive gets unmoored from the purpose motive, bad things happen. Banking Royal Commission anyone?
This blog unpacks one model for ‘visioning’ and makes the case for junking most corporate value statements. And I offer an approach to ‘purpose’. For me, the test of purpose is: authenticity; emotional connection; and open conversation.
Read MorePurpose: why do you exist?
Why does your organisation exist? Because if you can’t articulate your purpose, then I’m not sure how you determine your strategy. That might seem a simple question, and yet if you asked your executive team I wonder how many different answers you would get?
Read MoreSmartest guys in the room … what could go wrong?
What could go wrong? Plenty it seems.
Commonwealth Bank (‘Which bank?’) is just the most recent example of overconfidence in the ‘intellectual capacity’ of a leadership team to steer the organisation through the ‘white water’ of modern corporate life. In its recent report on failures at CBA APRA reportedly found:
- The board relied too heavily on senior management’s ‘high IQ’ and their ability to take care of all things
- That their risk management processes relied too heavily on ‘raw intellect over comprehensive analysis’
This is a pattern that we see repeated too often and yet we still fall for it. We’re a bit like Charlie Brown and Lucy (in the old Peanuts cartoon). Despite Lucy repeatedly pulling the ball as Charlie goes to kick it, each time Charlie imagines 'this time it is different'.
There’s been a host of studies on team performance and team dynamics over the years that show that teams full of ‘really smart people’ don’t perform as well as teams which might have 1-2 really smart’ players (and not necessarily the CEO). But somehow, we too often assuming that the answer to complex problems is ‘smart people’.
This has proven to be a very expensive assumption.
Perhaps the doozy of them all was Long Term Capital Management. LTCM was a hedge fund that boasted two Nobel laureates (Merton & Scholes, famous for options valuation theory), multiple PhD’s, and fund management veterans. LTCM grew to over US100B in funds within 4 years, showing 40% annual returns. But for all that, the Asian financial crisis triggered a collapse that saw LTCM facing US1Trillion in default risks. Ultimately the US Treasury had to step in to stablise the global financial system. So much for genius.
A close second: Enron. From a pipeline company in the 1980’s, Enron grew into the world’s largest energy trader. The collapse of Enron is told in a documentary ‘The Smartest Guys in the Room’. It traces the rise and fall of Enron, which grew to be the darling of Wall St, until it collapsed. The Chairman and Chief Executive of Enron at the time were Kenneth Lay and Jeff Skilling. They have been described[1] as ‘two supremely arrogant and belligerent men who believed they were the smartest guys in the room: that through sheer cleverness and creativity they had brought into being the most innovative corporation in the US’. Indeed, Enron was named ‘America’s most innovative company’ by Fortune for six consecutive years. The collapse was triggered, at least in part, by investigative reporter Bethany McLean who was undistracted by the glossy brochures and glitzy premises. It seems she didn't drink the Kool Aid.
As the dominoes began to fall a pattern of appalling behaviour emerged. For example, when the power markets were deregulated in California, Enron shut down energy generation to create power shortages and drive up energy prices. According to The New York Times, the top brass at Enron realised what was happening ‘but like a mad and dysfunctional cult, everyone carried on’. This description has parallels to the revelations of the current banking royal commission.
My final example is closer to home. The CEO of one of Australia’s leading companies had a reputation for his prodigious intellect. The company prided itself on capturing the best talent available in the sector. Despite this, with his powerful intellect, he developed a reputation for intellectual bullying. But in the years prior to his retirement he was persuaded to introduce a values-based leadership development program. In a post-retirement interview he observed, with a sense of profound insight, that he had recently come to the realisation that ‘it was all about the people’. One got the impression the interviewer was nodding approvingly at such wisdom.
I was bemused. How is it possible that the CEO of a major company, with a reputation for a prodigious intellect, took until his late 50’s to realise ‘people matter’? This is Management 101 on any MBA. Tom Peters, management guru, author and former McKinsey partner, has been telling us this for as long as I can remember.
The simple reality is that intellect can only get you so far. Perhaps intellect is a bit like money: more is better up until you reach a point at which the upside plateaus. At this point, other factors – wisdom, emotional intelligence, and the collective intelligence – begin to play a much bigger role.
[1] Oppel, R. A. and A. R. Sorkin (2001). Enron's collapse: The overview. Enron collapses as suitor cancels plan for merger. The New York Times.
MBA's, strategy and judgement
Why do we teach the various models and concepts of strategy? Is it as simple as Lewin's aphorism: there is nothing so practical as a good theory? Actually, it is much more than that. At its core we are teaching judgement; or at least, providing tools that will enhance judgement.
But what is judgement? What does it look like in action?
To finish I offer my own simple mantra for a great strategy process: immersion; synthesis; simplification.
DDB ... a strategist's view
PS: to my regular readers, my apologies. It has been too long. But in the last couple of months I've been teaching multiple MBA programs; working with a CEO to develop their strategy; and travelling to KL for some leadership development programs on strategy execution. And more.
Read MoreBuilding the moat … the work of strategy
So what is strategy? Porter did us no favours when he argued that there are only two generic strategies: low cost or differentiation. It is intellectually correct but practically inadequate. Strategy is a coherent set of choices around the business model – the fundamental organisational architecture of creating, delivering and capturing value.
These choices have to coalesce around an underlying thesis. And if this thesis is not embedded in the mental models of your leadership teams, and if it is not reflected in the culture of your organisation, your strategy is lost.
The challenge of strategy making is to assess whether your existing business model is delivering competitive advantage; and will it continue to do so into the future?
DDB ... a strategist's view
Read MoreStrategy's purpose ... on becoming a moat builder
The term strategy has acquired a certain ‘Humpty Dumpty’ quality: “it means just what I intend it to mean, nothing more, nothing less”. Before we explore what strategy is, we should be clear around the purpose of strategy.
The purpose of strategy is to create a sustainable competitive advantage. But just what do we mean 'competitive advantage'? It is much more than winning a customer/client. And just how sustainable is competitive advantage today.
This is the first of series of blogs on some of strategy's fundamentals. My experience tells me most leaders all have an implicit understanding of the concept of strategy. But when I ask 'what is strategy' in MBA classes and with leadership groups, it begins to become a bit murky. A sharper focus on the purpose of strategy will go a long way to lifting the quality of the strategic conversations.
A strategist's view ... DDB
Read MoreWhat driving fast cars can teach you about strategy …
Too many executives are focused on the near field obstacles ahead of the end game. They collapse the time frames in their strategic thinking based on ‘felt’ competitive pressures. Gary Hamel observed nearly 30 years ago, “most strategic plans tell us more about today’s problems than tomorrow’s opportunities”.
But Jeff Bezos (CEO Amazon) argues that a short time horizon confines organisations to a crowded competitive space. How do you extend the attention span of the organisation? Thinking about the longer-term future does not guarantee success, but the converse pretty much guarantees failure in today’s competitive landscape.
DDB ... a strategist's view
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I feel the need, the need for speed ...
Most of us think about decision quality - making the right call - when we think about strategic decision making. But it turns out speed is also vitally important. More CEO's are ousted for indecisiveness than for wrong decisions. Too many companies know that they are slow, but don't know what to do about it.
Jeff Bezos, Amazon's CEO describes their approach to high velocity decision making. It is predicated on maintaining a Day 1 mindset. ‘Day 2’ companies make high quality decisions, but they make them slowly. For Bezos, Day 2 is stasis, followed by irrelevance and excruciating, painful decline.
Are you a Day 1 company? What does your extended leadership team think? And what practices can you put in place to accelerate decision speed in your organisation?
DDB ... a strategist's view
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